Ekonomske posledice

Pred 11 leti je bila sicer aktualna influenca, vendar pa so modeli in načini širjenja virusa podobni in še vedno aktualni.

TRENDI 2020

Delo od doma

Strokovnjaki so že v času gripe in infliuence spodbujali delo od doma. Tako so povečali socialno distanco med sodelavci in preprečili okužbe.

S pojavom koronavirusa pa bo trend dela od doma in e-učenja skokovito narasel predvsem v času pandemije, ko se bo virus najhitreje širil in bo stopnja okuženosti dosegla vrhunec.

Londonski Imperial College modelira vpliv aktivnosti za zajezitev okužb na širjenje virusa.

Ta model lahko po analogijo in s kančkom skepse prenesemo tudi na ukrepe v podjetjih, ki se morajo spopasti z:

  • nevarnostjo “epidemije” v podjetju, kjer bi lahko brez vpeljave ukrepov število okuženih oz. bolnišk geometrično naraščalo (rdeča krivulja)
  • ukrepi socialnega distanciranja (delo od doma, videokonference, e-učenje, e-prodaja itd.) pa občutno zmanjšajo število obolelih (zelena krivulja)
  • v idealnem primeru bi se število obolelih po uvedbi ukrepov hitro zmanjšalo (plava krivulja), vendar pa bi lahko kasneje, po uknitvi le-teh spet skokovito naraslo, če ne bodo sprejeti ukrepi postali del rutinskih poslovnih procesov v podjetju

TRENDI 2009

Increasing the distance between key employees is the main goal of:

To illustrate the spread of the contagion in a company we need to draw social network map of the connections between employees in a given organization. A grey line indicates face-to-face [F2F] contact between two employees.

social-network

Suppose one of the employees visits relatives in Mexico and comes home sick. According to analisys done by Valdis Krebs, the disease will spread like this, because infectious individuals constantly come in contact with those who have not been exposed:

transmission

Because of local density in a typical human network, a healthy person can be exposed to multiple sick individuals, thus increasing the odds of transmission.

Ironically, the network structure that enhances the transmission of good contagions — such as ideas, solutions, and knowledge, can also transmit bad contagions such as disease and fear. When the network is transporting ideas and knowledge we want to decrease distance between individuals.

When the network starts to transmit disease we want to increase distance and fragmentation in the network to isolate the virus and slow/stop the spread.

Source: TNT blog

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